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Best Idea of the Day: Climate Change Futures Markets

It is a shame that academia works this way, and an academia where this stuff didn’t happen would probably be more accurate. But even our flawed academic consensus is usually more accurate than its contrarians, and it is hard to find reliable cheap ...

From NATE SILVER, FiveThirtyEight,  23 Nov 2009

Related Topics: United States Department of the Treasury,  International Monetary Fund,  United Nations,  World Bank,  George Mason

Democrats Damned If They Do; Damnder If They Don't

Public Policy Polling has an interesting survey out today in which they ask about the generic Congressional ballot in the context of the Democrats' actions on health care reform. What they find is that Democrats initially lead the generic ballot 46-38. ...

From NATE SILVER, FiveThirtyEight,  23 Nov 2009

Related Topics: U.S. Democratic Party,  U.S. Republican Party,  White House,  U.S. Congress,  Barack Obama

Advice To Blanche Lincoln: Speak Softly, But Carry Firm Position on Health Care Reform

Arkansas Senator Blanche Lincoln, who is up for a tough re-election fight next year, really doesn't have any good choices when it comes to the Democrats' health care reform bill. On the one hand, the measure has become unpopular in her state, and ...

From NATE SILVER, FiveThirtyEight,  22 Nov 2009

Related Topics: Blanche Lincoln,  U.S. Democratic Party,  U.S. Republican Party,  Max Baucus,  Jon Tester

Is The Public Option Un-Un-Dead?

Terrific analysis. I agree all down the line. No doubt we'll soon hear from those on the left who think that somehow all Obama (or Reid) has to do is be "tough" with the Blue Dogs (rubber hoses? telephone books?) and they'll fold, though. Or, better ...

From NATE SILVER, FiveThirtyEight,  21 Nov 2009

Related Topics: Barack Obama,  U.S. Senate,  U.S. Republican Party,  U.S. Democratic Party

Lincoln To Vote for Motion to Proceed, But Threatens Filibuster on Public Option

Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-Ark.) said she’d deliver the deciding vote to push forward with a sweeping health reform plan in the Senate Saturday, ending days of speculation over whether President Barack Obama’s signature priority would proceed to the floor ...

From NATE SILVER, FiveThirtyEight,  21 Nov 2009

Related Topics: Blanche Lincoln,  U.S. Democratic Party,  U.S. Senate,  Barack Obama,  Joe Lieberman

I Read Through 160,000,000 Bytes of Hacked Files And All I Got Was This Lousy E-Mail

I was unaware that he was 'conservative'. I'm not so sure it's even as bad as all that. Quoth the folks at RealClimate: The paper in question is the Mann, Bradley and Hughes (1998) Nature paper on the original multiproxy temperature reconstruction, and ...

From NATE SILVER, FiveThirtyEight,  20 Nov 2009

It's [Still] The Economy, Dumbass

All right -- this is my favorite graph in quite some time. Let's show the picture first and ask questions later. What we have is a comparison of Barack Obama's approval ratings on the economy to his approval ratings overall. It includes all polls in ...

From NATE SILVER, FiveThirtyEight,  20 Nov 2009

Related Topics: Barack Obama,  U.S. Democratic Party,  U.S. Republican Party

Dems Lucky There Aren't More Lincolns

How can Democrats expect to get 60 votes for their health care bill in the Senate when it barely garnered a majority in the House? It's a good question that has a number of good answers. For instance: the Senate's bill is more moderate than the House's. ...

From NATE SILVER, FiveThirtyEight,  19 Nov 2009

Related Topics: U.S. Democratic Party,  Blanche Lincoln,  White House,  John McCain,  Byron Dorgan

Op-Ed Contributor: The Senate’s Health Care Calculations

CRITICS of the health care reform plan often refer to it derisively as “ObamaCare.” On the policy merits, this is highly questionable: the White House has taken a hands-off approach toward the legislation that recently passed in the House and the ...

From ANDREW GELMAN, NATE SILVER AND DANIEL LEE, International Herald Tribune,  18 Nov 2009

Related Topics: White House,  Barack Obama,  U.S. Democratic Party,  U.S. Senate,  New York Times Company

10 Reasons That Sarah Palin Could Win the Republican Nomination

1. Enthusiasm. People tend to see electorate through a one-dimensional lens, in which a fixed number of voters are trying to decide between two or more candidates. But that's not really how politics works, especially in primaries. Rather, the playing ...

From NATE SILVER, FiveThirtyEight,  18 Nov 2009

Related Topics: U.S. Republican Party,  Sarah Palin,  Barack Obama,  Mitt Romney,  Tim Pawlenty

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