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Factors in local house price declines

Although many commentators write as if there were a national housing market, there have been huge differences in the experience across communities. Dastrup and Carson examine the OFHEO matched-sale data for house prices as calculated separately for 358 ...

From JAMES HAMILTON, Econbrowser,  22 Nov 2009

Receiver operating characteristics curve

Berge and Jorda evaluate rules of the form that would declare the economy to be in a recession when some indicator Yt falls below a specified threshold c, for example, saying that the economy is in a recession whenever GDP growth comes in below -0.6%. ...

From JAMES HAMILTON, Econbrowser,  18 Nov 2009

Related Topics: National Bureau of Economic Research

Commodity inflation

The table at the right summarizes the percent change between January 6 and November 11 in the cash prices of 19 commodities reported in the Wall Street Journal (downloaded via Webstract). The average commodity in this list has appreciated 37% since the ...

From JAMES HAMILTON, Econbrowser,  15 Nov 2009

Related Topics: Wall Street Journal,  Goldman Sachs,  Dow Jones,  Federal Reserve

Will rising oil prices derail the recovery?

In a paper presented at the Brookings Institution last spring, I examined the post-sample forecasting performance of an equation originally published in 2003, which relates real GDP to past values of GDP and oil prices. I noted in April that if you ...

From JAMES HAMILTON, Econbrowser,  10 Nov 2009

Related Topics: Brookings Institution

Consequences of the Lehman failure

Sterling's paper is in part a response to earlier analyses by John Taylor (2008, 2009) and John Cochrane and Luigi Zingales who noted that the spread between the LIBOR interest rate (London Interbank Offered Rate) and the OIS (Overnight Index Swap) ...

From JAMES HAMILTON, Econbrowser,  7 Nov 2009

Current economic conditions

U.S. light vehicle sales last month were up slightly from September and about the same as October 2008. Given how dismal those comparison months were, that's not saying much. Last month's sales were 3.5% below the average level of April through June, ...

From JAMES HAMILTON, Econbrowser,  4 Nov 2009

Related Topics: Bill McBride

A welcome GDP report

Consumption spending is the biggest component of GDP and the main contributor to third quarter growth, accounting by itself for 2.4 percentage points out of the 3.5% total, and with consumer purchases of motor vehicles and parts alone 3/5 of the ...

From JAMES HAMILTON, Econbrowser,  29 Oct 2009

Improving financial regulation and supervision

(1) Capital adequacy. The key principle for preventing the "bank run" dynamics of the recent financial turmoil is to make sure that financial institutions have a sufficient cushion of equity capital to be able to absorb liquidation and delinquency ...

From JAMES HAMILTON, Econbrowser,  27 Oct 2009

Related Topics: Federal Reserve,  FDIC,  Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

Evaluating the new tools of monetary policy

Perspective 1: Everybody just panicked Perspective 2: The core problem in credit markets preceded the crisis Finding the middle ground Conclusions The first interpretation of what went wrong is that financial markets were pricing risk correctly in 2006 ...

From JAMES HAMILTON, Econbrowser,  25 Oct 2009

Related Topics: Federal Reserve,  Fannie Mae,  Freddie Mac

Unemployment and inflation

Since I'll be trying to answer this question quantitatively using some equations, I'll begin with some notation. Let ut denote the unemployment rate as of the end of a particular quarter t; currently ut = 9.8 for t corresponding to 2009:Q3. I'll ...

From JAMES HAMILTON, Econbrowser,  20 Oct 2009

Related Topics: Federal Reserve

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